If you missed my musings about COVID mitigation with respect to our gatherings last Sunday, let me you catch you up. We're at a stage of the pandemic where we need to be prepared to ride the spikes and surges of the virus trajectory, as a way of life, for the time being. Remember, we have six-layers of mitigation that inform our decision making and trajectory is one of them. It is the layer that has kept us outdoors during this most recent surge.
These spikes and surges are, now, mostly predictable. The most recent surge nearly, exactly models a surge at the exact same time last year. Using last year as a model, we can anticipate the next surge to arrive in mid to late November (Thanksgiving). We will continue to monitor the trajectory of the virus and plan, accordingly, as a community.
As for the current state of COVID affairs in Marin, we are encouraged to see a reversal in the trajectory. In examining the last 30-days (see image below), in conjunction with good data, we are able to predict the behavior of the next 30-days with relative confidence. While numbers are still a little higher than before, we need to remember (1) Marin County is still well below case-rates seen in the rest of the state; (2) we know for certain that both our county and our church has a very high vaccination adherence (again, this is not a solicitation or endorsement of vaccination, simply a statement concerning mitigation); (3) comparable indoor activities such as indoor dining and movie theaters are sanctioned within our county.
Further, trajectory is a much better indicator for us as community, than nearly any other indicator. It tells us how the virus is behaving within a broader timeframe. Also, it allows us to get ahead of increasing or decreasing our community mitigation measures better than simply noting the case numbers on any particular day.
These spikes and surges are, now, mostly predictable. The most recent surge nearly, exactly models a surge at the exact same time last year. Using last year as a model, we can anticipate the next surge to arrive in mid to late November (Thanksgiving). We will continue to monitor the trajectory of the virus and plan, accordingly, as a community.
As for the current state of COVID affairs in Marin, we are encouraged to see a reversal in the trajectory. In examining the last 30-days (see image below), in conjunction with good data, we are able to predict the behavior of the next 30-days with relative confidence. While numbers are still a little higher than before, we need to remember (1) Marin County is still well below case-rates seen in the rest of the state; (2) we know for certain that both our county and our church has a very high vaccination adherence (again, this is not a solicitation or endorsement of vaccination, simply a statement concerning mitigation); (3) comparable indoor activities such as indoor dining and movie theaters are sanctioned within our county.
Further, trajectory is a much better indicator for us as community, than nearly any other indicator. It tells us how the virus is behaving within a broader timeframe. Also, it allows us to get ahead of increasing or decreasing our community mitigation measures better than simply noting the case numbers on any particular day.
Therefore, given that we are potentially about two-months from our next surge, it is our desire to make the most of our current trajectory. Anthem Church will return to indoor gatherings beginning this Sunday, September 19.
For those of you with more restrictive consciences or are medically vulnerable, we highly encourage you to wear N-95 masks (always available at the welcome desk) for an extra layer of mitigation in our mask-optional, indoor environments. Our church cannot and will not get into the mask enforcement business, so we ask you all to take seriously the call to make your own, responsible conscience decisions.
Lastly, while I'm sure it goes without saying, another extremely important and loving mitigation measure is to stay home if you or anyone in your household is experiencing any symptoms of illness or you have had any known exposure. Please do not take it upon yourself to self-diagnose. We simply ask you do the loving thing to protect our more vulnerable members, who wish to worship with us each Sunday with relative confidence.
I love you all and thank you for being such an adaptable church (which just so happens to be another of one of our six-layers).
See you Sunday,
-PAC
For those of you with more restrictive consciences or are medically vulnerable, we highly encourage you to wear N-95 masks (always available at the welcome desk) for an extra layer of mitigation in our mask-optional, indoor environments. Our church cannot and will not get into the mask enforcement business, so we ask you all to take seriously the call to make your own, responsible conscience decisions.
Lastly, while I'm sure it goes without saying, another extremely important and loving mitigation measure is to stay home if you or anyone in your household is experiencing any symptoms of illness or you have had any known exposure. Please do not take it upon yourself to self-diagnose. We simply ask you do the loving thing to protect our more vulnerable members, who wish to worship with us each Sunday with relative confidence.
I love you all and thank you for being such an adaptable church (which just so happens to be another of one of our six-layers).
See you Sunday,
-PAC
2 Comments
I am helping a church to decide whether to use Subsplash and your church was listed as an active site. I am blown away, thank you for sharing your service to our Savior. I am in a TN area that many refused to wear masks or be vaccinated, and we have been hit hard. A 41year-old neighbor is with Christ just this past week because he refused to be vaccinated. My moderna must have kept me safe as I was in personal contact with him even after he tested positive, he and his entire family. He has a sister who might have permanent lung damage. I read on another site the 7 steps of dying of Covid and my friend only made it to maybe the 6th, should you care to have it. For me, to live is Christ, to die is gain, and the juxtaposition is when Christians can be so afraid at their own passing. It seems at best their faith is weak like an adolescent who knows more than their parents. I only say this as I see you are just opening indoor services tomorrow. May God bless you all with His unfathomable riches. Be of good cheer, and we will all meet one day at His return.
Thank you for your encouragement and taking the time to offer such thoughtful feedback. We take seriously the call to balance good citizenship and faithful worship. It's wonderful to hear this affirmed...